- Fries D, Rossegger A, Endrass J, Singh JP (in press). The prediction of criminal recidivism using routinely available file information. International Journal of Psychological Research.
Objective. The aim of the present study was to cross-validate the investigation of Buchanan and Leese (2006) into the prediction of criminal recidivism. Method. The sample comprised offenders in the criminal justice system of the Canton of Zürich, Switzerland who were discharged to the community. Participants were followed, and evidence of subsequent charges and convictions for both general and serious recidivism was investigated at fixed periods of 2.5, 6.5, and 10.5 years. The predictive validity of socio-demographic, criminal history, and legal class information was assessed using logistic regression as well as log-likelihood, receiver operating characteristic curve, and contingency analyses. Results. A multivariable model including age and criminal history information was found to produce the highest rates of predictive validity for general and serious recidivism. Conclusion. Information regularly accessible in forensic practice may be able to guide clinicians as to the recidivism risk level of their patients.
- Laubacher A, Rossegger A, Endrass J, Angst J, Urbaniok F und Vetter S (2013). Adolescent Delinquency and Antisocial Tendencies as Precursors to Adult Violence Offending: A Prospective Study of a Representave Sample of Swiss Men. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 1-13.
Studies on adult sex and violent offenders have found high rates of adolescent delinquency, while early delinquency has been shown to be significantly associated with adult offending. The examined subsample (n = 123) of a longitudinal prospective study (n = 6,315) includes all men who at the age of 19 had an entry in the criminal records. During the observation period of 34 years, 68.3% of the sample had been reconvicted as adults, 23.6% for violent or sex offenses. The odds of adult sex or violent offending were 2.8 times higher for those who had committed a violent offense in adolescence and 1.05 times higher for any offense committed before the age of 19. The characteristics of criminal history showed the highest discriminative values (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.61-0.65). The most important finding of this study was that characteristics of adolescent delinquency predicted adult violent or sex offending, whereas socioeconomic and psychiatric characteristics did not.
- Fries, D., Rossegger, A., Endrass, J., & Singh, J. P. (2013). Utility of a violence screening tool to predict recidivism in offenders with schizophrenia: A total forensic cohort study. Open Access Journal of Forensic Psychology, 5, 40-52.
The aim of the present study was to investigate the utility of the screening tool developed by Wootton and colleagues (2008) to predict recidivism in a total cohort of offenders diagnosed with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders in the Canton of Zürich, Switzerland. The sample consisted of violent (including sexual) offenders between the ages of 18 to 65 years with ICD-10 diagnoses of schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, affective psychosis, and delusional disorder, sentenced either to court-ordered therapy or at least 10 month’s prison and discharged into the community (N = 34). The instrument was found to be useful in prospectively identifying low-risk individuals and retrospectively discriminating recidivists. Albeit the adaptation of the screening tool may have some usefulness when identifying low-risk individuals, caution is warranted when used in forensic samples.
Unsere Forschungsgruppe hat zu einer Vielzahl forensischer Fragestellungen, aber auch zu allgemeinpsychiatrischen Themen, in internationalen Fachzeitschriften publiziert.
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